A new Forrester report takes a look at cloud computing's potential in the Asia Pacific region. Although it ignores South Korea for some reason, it does provide some fun facts and forecasts about China, India, Japan, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
The report, based on interviews with vendors and with 530 IT executives of company size 20 and larger found that an average of only 28% of companies have adopted cloud in the region, excepting Japan; this number drops to 22% percent in China.
The good news is a combined 52% of companies are either using or considering cloud, compared to 14% in 2009.
Japan and PaaS
I imagine Japan is not included in these particular numbers because doing business on Mars would not be stranger than doing business in Japan; the country offers a unique exception to any sort of “norm” in almost any analysis.
The Forrester report did note that Japan's unique, conservative culture may result in companies skipping right past on-site cloud and moving to public cloud, with projected growth from about $800 million last year to more than $11 billion 2020. Even so, the country's obsession for custom-built software is expected to continue, providing an opportunity for PaaS vendors, according to the report.
No New Ground...
The report doesn't break new ground for executives with experience in the region. It touts the completion of Australia's National Broadband Network (NBN), a controversial initiative that may bankrupt the nation if completed as envisioned. It says, diplomatically and in so many words, that India's sclerotic government has not kept pace with the private sector in developing the IT sector.
It also notes that internet access is poor in the wilds of Southeast Asia (certainly true since many people there still don't have running water or electricity), and can only throw its hands up in the air and call the Philippines “potentially compelling,” given the nation's weak government IT direction yet strong BPO, IT, and English skills.
...But Many Details
But there are lots of numbers and smart-looking S-curves in the report, probably enough to maintain optimism about the region on behalf of vendors and enterprises looking for new sources, subsidiaries, and markets.
It's All Relative
As with most of these detailed reports, which reflect a lot of hard work by many people, there is no relative view of what's going on. What does it feel like to step off a plane in Mumbai or walk down the streets of Makati? (Hot, mostly.) How exciting is to be in Sydney these days? How is Japan coping with its Triple Tragedy and Lost Decades? And again, where in heck is South Korea in this report?
My own research finds South Korea to be the most dynamic IT environment in the world right now. Japan finished 27th among 82 countries I looked at, with placing China 24th, India 51st, and Australia 52nd. Some of the Southeast Asian nations did well, with Vietnam in 7th place, Malaysia 16th, and Singapore 18th,
My numbers tend to favor developing nations, and does not weigh overall market size. Its goal is not to weigh the most quickly-moving nations, not the biggest markets – everybody knows who these countries are.
(Meanwhile, I see that another new cloud-computing report, from the Business Software Alliance in Washington, DC, has just given poor marks to China, India, and Vietnam, with poor government policies apparently weighing these places down. I'll check it out and report on it.)
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