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CIVETS: Another Look at Developing Markets

IT purveyors and executives looking for new sources and markets have been bombarded with tales of the potential of the four BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – since London-based, Goldman Sachs economist James O'Neill coined the term in the 90s. More recently, Mr. O'Neill created a grouping called “the Next Eleven,” nations that have the population heft and economic potential to emerge as significant global players in coming years. Now, there's another grouping – the CIVETS – coined by Robert Ward of The Economist Business Intelligence Unit. These countries are viewed favorably by Mr. Ward by dint of dynamic, diverse economies and youngish populations. Each has its own significant internal political challenge as well, archetyping the notion of an exciting, yet risky, developing nation. The CIVETS are: Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa. The term was coined in 2009, and is now receiving increasing coverage. Contrast and Compare Each of these were among the 82 nations that I've been studying recently, with two of them in Southeast Asia, the region in which I was based for the past three years before returning to the US in late January. My research focuses on national ICT expenditures, adjusted for local cost-of-living, relative bandwidth speeds, and social factors such as income disparity, perceived corruption, and press freedom. The primary idea is to create a relative, pound-for-pound view of the nations of the world and how they are adopting technology. A secondary goal was to put into numbers what one feels on the ground. There's a crackling vibrancy in the air when you step off the plane in certain places, a resigned air of struggle against overwhelming odds in others, a torpor in others, none of which is communicated through standard ways of compiling statistics. Vietnam is the real star, according to my rankings, among the CIVETS grouping. No other country comes close, frankly. Vietnam ranks 7th among the nations of the world, trailing only South Korea and a handful of Eastern/Central European countries. Egypt ranks 21st, Turkey 40th, South Africa 53rd, Colombia 71st, and Indonesia 76th. Specific Country Notes Egypt does rank 2nd in the North Africa/Middle East region, closely behind Morocco. Turkey is more highly developed than the other CIVETS, and my method tends to favor highly dynamic, lower-income nations. South Africa ranks higher than Kenya in Sub-Saharan Africa, and leads Nigeria by a very large margin. Latin America as a whole trails most of the world in my research, and even by that standard Colombia is a middling performer. Honduras, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and a few others are performing better than Colombia. Indonesia is among the laggards in Southeast Asia and the world. Many people may be surprised to hear this, given Indonesia's new status as a member of the G20 – the world's largest 20 economies. But that status is a function of the country's population of about 240 million – fourth in the world. Other factors work against Indonesia: Its per-person income trails that of Malaysia, Thailand, and China. To be fair, income disparity is much lower than in China and most Southeast Asian nations. Its national ICT expenditure is only 3.3% of GDP. Compare this to China (5.2%), the Philippines (6.5%), Thailand (6.7%), and Malaysia (11.7%). Its average bandwidth of 1.35Mbps is slow, even by the standards of the Philippines (a constant source of complaint there). The CIVETS grouping is another valuable contribution in helping people make decisions about what places they should be considering as they look beyond traditional sources and markets. It's my hope that the laggards in this group will be more aggressive in their use of ICT as they develop – this is the best way, in my opinion, to create that rising tide that lifts all boats.

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Source: Latest News from Cloud Computing Journal | 22 Feb 2012 | 11:39 am

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